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America's Iran dilemma: How to strike Fordow without losing sight of China threat
The simmering conflict between Israel and Iran is more than a geopolitical flashpointit reflects a historical rivalry stretching back nearly 2,500 years. When the Persian Empire underCyrus the Great conquered Babylon in 539 BCE, it issued a decree allowingJewish captives to return and rebuild Jerusalems temple. Though that act was viewed as benevolent, it also placed Persia at the center of the regions civilizational balance. Since then, Persia and Israel have frequently occupied opposing poles of power in the Middle East.Today, that long arc has reached a perilous apex. A direct IsraelIran confrontation is underway, and President Trump, appears poised to commit U.S. forces. Bomber task forces and carrier groups are moving into position, and speculation is mounting that America will launch a strike against FordowIrans most secure nuclear facility. If such a strike occurs, it must be precise and restrained. While Irans nuclear threat must be blunted, Americas strategic focus must remain fixed on its greatest rival: China.WHY US MUST DESTROY IRAN'S FORDOW NUCLEAR FACILITY NOWAncient Identity, Modern StakesIrans self-perception is steeped in its Persian heritagea deep cultural identity that sees itself not only as a nation but as a civilizational anchor of the region. Though the Islamic Republic has distanced itself from pre-Islamic monarchy, it still invokes the legacy of Persian greatness. This fuels a deeply rooted view that Irannot the Arab world or the Westis the rightful power broker of the Middle East.That mindset helps explain Irans nuclear ambition. The regime believes regional leadership and deterrence demand atomic capability. This view is not merely ideologicalit is strategic, historical, and, in Tehrans eyes, just.Fordow: The Nuclear RedoubtTheFordow Fuel Enrichment Plant is buried deepsome 80 meters under Mount Alvand, near Qom. It houses IR-6 centrifuges and is shielded against conventional strikes. While Israel has conducted attacks on Natanz and Esfahan, Fordow remains intactuntouched in part because only the United States possesses theGBU-57A/B "Massive Ordnance Penetrator" capable of reaching it.HOW CLOSE WAS IRAN TO A NUCLEAR WEAPON BEFORE ISRAELS STRIKE ON TEHRAN?If the U.S. acts, it must be to eliminate Fordow and set back Irans breakout timeline significantly. But it must do so with clear limits.Iran Will Strike BackNo one should assume that Iran will capitulate after a single strikeeven a successful one. AyatollahKhamenei has already warned, "The battle has just begun." Iran retains the means to retaliate: proxy militias, ballistic missiles, cyber warfare capabilities, and naval forces prepared to strike U.S. assets and disrupt oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz. The regimes Revolutionary Guards and domestic intelligence apparatus are loyal and brutalso hopes of a popular uprising in the wake of a strike are, for now, unrealistic.Thus, a military operation must be seen not as a war-ending blow, but a time-buying maneuver.Strategic Discipline: Follow Israels LeadIsraels primary goal is not regime change, but to deny Iran nuclear weapons capability. Israeli Ambassador YechielLeiter recently stated, "The entire operation really has to be completed with the elimination of Fordow." That clear, narrow mission should also be the U.S. objective.ISRAEL'S WAR WITH IRAN IS A GLOBAL FLASHPOINT. AMERICA MUST LEAD BEFORE IT SPREADSAmerica should support Israel with logistics, surveillance, munitions, and deterrencebut avoid entangling itself in a broader regional war. Any strike must be followed by verifiable proofseismic signatures, ISR evidence, and ideally IAEA confirmationthat Fordow is inoperable. Without that, the mission lacks strategic and political clarity.China Remains the Pacing ThreatAll the while, the United States must remember this: Iran is a regional actor with limited global reach. China is a peer competitor with global ambition. The U.S. National Defense Strategy has repeatedly identified China as thepacing threat to U.S. global primacyin technology, trade, cyber, and military strength.Xi Jinping is watching closely. A prolonged U.S. entanglement in the Middle East is precisely the kind of strategic distraction China hopes for. The Indo-Pacific remains the theater where Americas future will be decided. Allowing a secondary conflict to drain U.S. bandwidth plays directly into Beijings hand.The Real Mission: Contain, Dont ConvertRegime change in Iran is not achievable through airpower alone, and it is not necessary to achieve our strategic aims. Washington must be content to degrade Irans nuclear capacity, isolate the regime diplomatically, and fortify its regional allies.Deterrence must be reestablished through credible actionnot open-ended intervention. Let the U.S. strike, when necessary, but not stay longer than required. Let Fordow fall, but let American strategy remain focused on China.CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINIONConsequences of InactionThe alternativedoing nothinghas grave implications. A nuclear Iran would shift the balance of power, embolden its proxies, and trigger proliferation in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey. Tehran would hold Tel Aviv hostage, threaten U.S. bases, and nullify American deterrence. Inaction sends a signal: U.S. red lines are negotiable. That would ripple far beyond the Middle East.ConclusionIrans nuclear ambition is rooted not just in military calculus, but in a civilizational memoryone that casts Iran as the heir to ancient Persias regional dominance. Israel, born from exile and forged in conflict, sees its very survival at stake. The United States must support its allybut on clearly defined terms.We can and should eliminate Fordow. We can endure Irans response. But we must not lose sight of the greater contest. Americas future will not be shaped by the mountains of Qom, but by the islands of the South China Sea.Let history remember: we struck hard, struck smart, and remained focused. Fordow may fallbut our eyes must stay on China.CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM ROBERT MAGINNIS
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