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MORNING GLORY: Will the House Freedom Caucus desert President Trump and trigger a massive tax hike?
House Speaker Mike Johnson hopes to have brought President Donald Trumps "One Big Beautiful Bill" to a vote on Wednesday afternoon or evening. If he was successful and "OBBB" passed and is on its way to the presidents desk, then this column has been overtaken by events great events as passage of the OBBB means lift off of the American economy.If, however, four or more Republicans bolted the Caucus, turned on the president and their party, and stopped the huge breakthrough for the economy, the border, the energy sector and especially the nations defense and voted "no," then break glass and pull the lever.DEMOCRATIC DOCTORS' PROTEST AGAINST TRUMP'S BEAUTIFUL BILL DERAILED BY FLOOD OF US CAPITOL TOURISTSOBBB isnt the sort of bill that can survive a conference and a second run through the legislative course. Too many narrow choke-points were navigated to reach this decision point. Throwing caution to the wind and this delicately balanced high pile of compromises to a "conference committee" is actually to throw away a unique opportunity for the GOP to deliver on the central promises the party and President Trump made in the campaign of 2024.Its not a perfect bill in my eyes or the eyes of any other observer and most members of Congress. Its a very good bill, however, and the good must not be the enemy of the perfect.The most vocal critics of the OBBB are self-described "deficit hawks" (plus the odd ball Congressman Massie from Kentucky who believes his job is to be interviewed on television.)It isnt possible to cut more from the bills impact on the deficit without starting over, and "starting over" means failing to deliver.Again, the margins of the House and Senate GOP majorities are too narrow to expect a different result. Shooting down the "OBBB" now means shooting it down period. The members who vote "no" will be responsible for the biggest tax hike in history and the continued decline in American military readiness as well as the underfunded Border Patrol and unfinished wall.The Republicans voting "no" may be from "safe districts," but its pretty clear that the GOP writ large and President Trump specifically will be recruiting and funding primary challengers for them and if those arent successful, encouraging voters to send honest obstructionists and leftists to the House instead of grand-standers.There is, however, one thing which the president and the speaker can hold out to the House members who want more cuts to spending: the opportunity to write and manage the second reconciliation bill.Early this year there were voices arguing for two reconciliation bills a first reconciliation bill for a layup on border and defense spending, and then a second one for the much-more-difficult-to-pass spending and tax cuts and entitlement reforms aimed at paring waste, fraud and abuse from those programs.President Trump, ever the dealmaker, pushed for the "OBBB" on the theory so far proven correct that the GOP wouldnt risk the economy-killing tax hike scheduled to arrive January 1, 2026, unless the "OBBB" stops it first. Trump bet on momentum and thus far hes winning that bet.There are "true believers" in the House who want deeper spending cuts. If they blow the OBBB up this week, they will say they are counting on the House and Senate GOP to reassemble the pieces but with more cuts. That wont happen, of course. Its not even a mirage. Its counter-reality. That wont happen. Look at the Senate vote: 50-50. All the weight that the bill can bear is in it. Pass it or welcome the massive tax hike of 2026!The existing spending cuts in the bill endangered its passage in the Senate. Slice even a little deeper and the deal is dead. The dead-enders in the House may want to believe something else could happen, but the bottom line is killing the "OBBB" now means killing it forever. The Republicans who vote against the "OBBB" are voting to crash the economy between now and November 2026, and thus for a Democrat majority in the House and all the fiscal irresponsibility that telegraphs to the markets. It would be a bloodbath in the markets and rightfully so.The "no" votes on the "OBBB" are "yes" votes for Speaker Jeffries and massive spending hikes his arrival would herald along with the enormous tax hike whammy.The deficit hawks object that they were promised more and they probably were. But every senator gets a vote too and the limit of the Senates appetite for collective deficit cutting has been reached. This is the best that can be done on this round of reconciliation.What the president and the speaker can offer the hold-outs is control of the second round of reconciliation, a second round which this Congress has the right to take up.Put Representatives Chip Roy, Andy Harris and Ralph Norman in charge of that bills drafting and the management of it on the House floor. No guarantees of passage can be given there are moderates in the House GOP who would have to be persuaded, but the president and the speaker can offer strong support for the effort. The deficit hawks might come up with the thread that can make it through the smallest of many needles eyes: actual reform of entitlements.If there are members who want Social Security to go bankrupt, or Medicare and interest payments to devour the entire discretionary spending budget, they will be indifferent to entitlement reform. But responsible members of both parties in both houses of Congress have to realize that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was correct when he declared Tuesday that "The level of the debt is sustainable, but the path is not.""We need to address that sooner or later," Powell continued. "Sooner is better than later.""Sooner" can mean right now and if the fiscal hawks are allowed to craft an entitlement reform bill for the second reconciliation bill, one that uses the greatest weapon in the arsenal against the national debt time. With a well-crafted bill, they could even pull it off.Recall the "BRAC" commissions? On five different occasions since 1988, Congress gave the very sensitive task of designating American military installations for closure to an independent commission which held hearings and produced a list of bases to be shuttered. Every localcongressman knew their ox could be gored, but they also knew the country needed to trim the size and scale of domestic military installations. So Congress set up and empowered BRACs, and the BRACs did their work. Congress was eventually presented the list and, by design, Congress could only vote "yes" or "no" on the entire list. By forcing all of Congress to deal with all of the closures, the pain was shared out and the BRACs recommendations always accepted. The five BRAC rounds since 1988 closed over 350 military installations, leading to significant cost savings and freeing up resources for other priorities.We need such an approach for an entitlement reform commission and such a procedure for Congressional consideration of the commissions recommendations.CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINIONTake the easiest reform to propose and pass: adding a month to the retirement age eligibility tables every year for the next 60 years. That would mean a year increase in the age of eligibility from 65 to 66 for exampleevery dozen years, and would help conform Social Security to actuarial tables reflecting our collective longer life spans. Put the slowly moving reform in place only for those under 55 and the end result is that all Americans under 55 wont get a Social Security check until age 66. Thats a very gentle but necessary bending of the cost curve for entitlements.Include such a proposal in a package of other careful, gradual reforms to our tangle of entitlements and then arrange for the whole package to receive an up-or-down vote in the lame-duck session of Congress in December 2026.The deficit hawks can demand the right to try and actually fix the deficit. And they should get it.But is that what they want, or do they desire face time on viral videos that are here today and gone before sundown?This is a very serious moment in the life of the country. Making a tax structure permanent that rewards investment and risk is the single most important thing this Congress can do to guarantee a vibrant, growing economy. Resupplying our defense stockpiles and expediting ship and submarine construction are vital to our safety. Blocking the permanent adoption of that tax code as well as the urgently needed investments in defense and border security would be reckless beyond measure.But if enough short-sighted grandstanders rise up to block the OBBB, make them an offer they cant refuse: responsibility for more than speeches.Hugh Hewitt is a Fox News contributor, and host of "The Hugh Hewitt Show," heard weekdays from 3 pm to 6 pm ET on the Salem Radio Network, and simulcast on Salem News Channel. Hugh drives America home on the East Coast and to lunch on the West Coast on over 400 affiliates nationwide, and on all the streaming platforms where SNC can be seen. He is a frequent guest on the Fox News Channels news roundtable hosted by Bret Baier weekdays at 6pm ET. A son of Ohio and a graduate of Harvard College and the University of Michigan Law School, Hewitt has been a Professor of Law at Chapman Universitys Fowler School of Law since 1996 where he teaches Constitutional Law. Hewitt launched his eponymous radio show from Los Angeles in 1990. Hewitt has frequently appeared on every major national news television network, hosted television shows for PBS and MSNBC, written for every major American paper, has authored a dozen books and moderated a score of Republican candidate debates, most recently the November 2023 Republican presidential debate in Miami and four Republican presidential debates in the 2015-16 cycle. Hewitt focuses his radio show and his column on the Constitution, national security, American politics and the Cleveland Browns and Guardians. Hewitt has interviewed tens of thousands of guests from Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Kerry to Republican Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump over his 40 years in broadcast, and this column previews the lead story that will drive his radio/ TV show today.CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM HUGH HEWITT
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