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Trump's unpredictable Middle East moves actually follow a brilliant master plan
President Donald Trump came back into office promising no new wars. So far, hes kept that promise. But hes also left much of Washington and many of Americas allies confused by a series of rapid, unexpected moves across the Middle East.In just a few months, Trump has reopened backchannels with Iran, then turned around and threatened its regime with collapse. Hes kept Israel at arms length skipping it on his regional tour before signaling support once again. He lifted U.S. sanctions on Syrias Islamist leader, a figure long treated as untouchable in Washington. And he made headlines by hosting Pakistans top general at the White House, even as India publicly objected.For those watching closely, its been hard to pin down a clear doctrine. Critics see improvisation sometimes even contradiction. But step back, and a pattern begins to emerge. Its not about ideology, democracy promotion, or traditional alliances. Its about access. Geography. Trade.US MOBILIZES MILITARY ASSETS TO THE MIDDLE EAST AMID CONFLICTMore specifically, it may be about restarting a long-stalled infrastructure project meant to bypass China and put the United States back at the center of a strategic economic corridor stretching from India to Europe.The project is called the IndiaMiddle EastEurope Corridor, or IMEC. Most Americans have never heard of it. It was launched in 2023 at the G20 summit in New Delhi, as a joint initiative among the U.S., India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the European Union. Its goal? To build a modern infrastructure link connecting South Asia to Europe without passing through Chinese territory or relying on Chinese capital.IMECs vision is bold but simple: Indian goods would travel west via rail and ports through the Gulf, across Israel, and on to European markets. Along the way, the corridor would connect not just trade routes, but energy pipelines, digital cables, and logistics hubs. It would be the first serious alternative to Chinas Belt and Road Initiative a way for the U.S. and its partners to build influence without boots on the ground.FETTERMAN BREAKS RANKS, PRAISES TRUMP'S MIDDLE EAST POLICIES: 'DID THE RIGHT THING'But before construction could begin, war broke out in Gaza.The October 2023 Hamas attacks and Israels military response sent the region into crisis. Normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel fell apart. The Red Sea became a warzone for shipping. And Gulf capital flows paused. The corridor and the broader idea of using infrastructure to tie the region together was quietly shelved.Thats the backdrop for Trumps current moves. Taken individually, they seem scattered. Taken together, they align with the logic of clearing obstacles to infrastructure. Trump may not be drawing maps in the Situation Room. But his instincts for leverage, dealmaking and unpredictability are removing the very roadblocks that halted IMEC in the first place.His approach to Iran is a prime example. In April, backchannels were reopened on the nuclear front. In May, a Yemen truce was brokered reducing attacks on Gulf shipping. In June, after Israeli strikes inside Iran, Trump escalated rhetorically, calling for Irans "unconditional surrender." That combination of engagement and pressure may sound erratic. But it mirrors the approach that cleared a diplomatic path with North Korea: soften the edges, then apply public pressure.TRUMP RESHAPES US FOREIGN POLICY WITH WILDLY SUCCESSFUL, BUSINESS-FIRST MIDDLE EAST TRIPMeanwhile, Trumps temporary distancing from Israel is harder to miss. He skipped it on his regional tour and avoided aligning with Prime Minister Netanyahus continued hard-line approach to Gaza. Instead, he praised Qatar a U.S. military partner and quiet mediator in the Gaza talks and signaled support for Gulf-led reconstruction plans. The message: if Israel refuses to engage in regional stabilization, it wont control the map.Trump also made the unexpected decision to lift U.S. sanctions on Syrias new leader, President Ahmad al-Sharaa a figure with a past in Islamist groups, now leading a transitional government backed by the UAE. Critics saw the move as legitimizing extremism. But in practice, it unlocked regional financing and access to transit corridors once blocked by U.S. policy.Even the outreach to Pakistan which angered India fits a broader infrastructure lens. Pakistan borders Iran, influences Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, and maintains ties with Gulf militaries. Welcoming Pakistans military chief was less about loyalty, and more about leverage. In corridor politics, geography often trumps alliances.TRUMP WRAPS MOMENTOUS MIDDLE EAST TRIP WITH ECONOMIC DEALS, SYRIA SANCTIONS RELIEF AND WARNING TO IRANNone of this means Trump has a master plan. Theres no confirmed strategy memo that links these moves to IMEC. And the region remains volatile. Irans internal stability is far from guaranteed. The Gaza conflict could reignite. Saudi and Qatari interests dont always align. But theres a growing logic underneath the diplomacy: de-escalate just enough conflict to make capital flow again and make corridors investable.CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINIONThat logic may not be ideologically pure. It certainly isnt about spreading democracy. But it reflects a real shift in U.S. foreign policy. Call it infrastructure-first geopolitics where trade routes, ports and pipelines matter more than treaties and summits.To be clear, the United States isnt the only player thinking this way. Chinas Belt and Road Initiative has been advancing the same model for over a decade. Turkey, Iran and Russia are also exploring new logistics and energy corridors. But what sets IMEC apart and what makes Trumps recent moves notable is that it offers an opening for the U.S. to compete without large-scale military deployments or decades-long aid packages.For all his unpredictability, Trump has always had a sense for economic leverage. That may be what were seeing here: less a doctrine than a direction. Less about grand visions, and more about unlocking chokepoints.Theres no guarantee it will work. The region could turn on a dime. And the corridor could remain, as it is now, a partially built concept waiting on political will. But Trumps moves suggest hes trying to build the conditions for it to restart not by talking about peace, but by making peace a condition for investment.In a region long shaped by wars over ideology and territory, that may be its own kind of strategy.CLICK HERE FOR MORE FROM TANVI RATNA
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