S&P 500 could push even higher by end of year: Chart of the Day

00:00 Speaker A

In today's chart of the day, we are keeping it straightforward. We are once again approaching the record high for the S&P 500 to see just how close. That's what I wanted to illustrate here today. So here we're just looking at a very straightforward uh year-to-date chart of the S&P 500. We're up a little bit on the year, but really not much changed. What's important here is the clawback that we have seen from the depths here uh where we saw tariff related losses. And because, as many investors have said to us, the worst case scenario of the most onerous, the highest tariffs on our trading partners, seems as though that worst case has been removed, at least for now. That is what has allowed stocks to rally from here. So here was the record high for the S&P 500 that was back on February 19th specifically. Since then to today, we see about a 2 and a quarter percent decline. So we're about 2 and a quarter percent from that record high level. Um and many of the investors, strategists that we've been speaking with, even as recently as today, have said they are optimistic. We could push higher from here. It's going to depend on things like getting those trade deals further down the line, seeing what happens with the tax bill that is making its way through Congress, and what does the Fed do next? Is it indeed going to cut rates once or twice before the end of the year? So those are the various things that investors are watching most closely here. In terms of where strategists are for year end for the S&P 500, there is a wide, wide dispersion that has remained in place really throughout the year. Wells Fargo at 7,000, I don't even know where that would be on this chart somewhere up there. And then the lowest uh estimate on the street is with Stifel Nicholas. That's at 5,500, so around here or so. So very broad range of outcomes. If you look at the median of those outcomes, you get 6,100, which is just a little bit above where we are today, and obviously would imply a new record for the average. So what's interesting about that 6,100, that median, is that since we saw the sort of tariff pause with China, many of those uh forecasts have been increased. The likes of Ed Yardeni at Yardeni Research, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, City and Barclays have been raising their forecasts. Remember, they many of them cut as we saw those worst case scenarios being baked in, and then they raised when it looked like that that was removed. But when we're talking what to watch here, 614415, that was the closing record on February 19th. That is the next number to watch, Josh.

05:10 Josh

Thank you, Julie.