BYD Unleashes an EV Industry Reckoning That Alarms Beijing

(Bloomberg) -- The price war engulfing China’s electric vehicle industry has already sent share prices tumbling and prompted an unusual level of intervention from Beijing. The shakeout may just be getting started.

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For all the Chinese government’s efforts to prevent price cuts by market leader BYD Co. from turning into a vicious spiral, analysts say a combination of weaker demand and extreme overcapacity will slice into profits at the strongest brands and force feebler competitors to fold. Even after the number of EV makers started shrinking for the first time last year, the industry is still using less than half its production capacity.

Chinese authorities are trying to minimize the fallout, chiding the sector for “rat race competition” and summoning heads of major brands to Beijing last week. Yet previous attempts to intervene have had little success. For the short term at least, investors are betting few automakers will escape unscathed: BYD, arguably the biggest winner from industry consolidation, has lost $21.5 billion in market value since its shares peaked in late May.

“What you’re seeing in China is disturbing, because there’s a lack of demand and extreme price cutting,” said John Murphy, a senior automotive analyst at Bank of America Corp. Eventually there will be “massive consolidation” to soak up the excess capacity, Murphy said.

For automakers, relentless discounting erodes profit margins, undermines brand value and forces even well-capitalized companies into unsustainable financial positions. Low-priced and low-quality products can seriously damage the international reputation of “Made-in-China” cars, noted the People’s Daily, an outlet controlled by the Communist Party. And that knock would come just as models from BYD to Geely, Zeekr and Xpeng start to collect accolades on the world stage.

For consumers, price drops may seem beneficial but they mask deeper risks. Unpredictable pricing discourages long-term trust — already people are complaining on China’s social media, wondering why they should buy a car now when it may be cheaper next week — while there’s a chance automakers, as they cut costs to stay afloat, may reduce investment in quality, safety and after-sales service.